Overview
Title
To improve weather research and forecasting by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and for other purposes.
ELI5 AI
The bill is like a big plan to help weather scientists get better at predicting the weather by giving them lots of money to study and learn new ways of figuring out if it will rain or be sunny, but some people are worried because the plan isn't super clear on how all the money will be spent and shared.
Summary AI
The bill, S. 4907, called the "FORECASTS Tracking Act of 2024," aims to enhance weather research and forecasting by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It focuses on improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts through advanced research, better data assimilation, and the development of new forecasting technologies. It also establishes a program to train the next generation of scientists in weather and Earth system modeling and provides funding for these initiatives. Additionally, the bill authorizes appropriations for various weather-related programs and efforts to improve predictive capacities for natural disasters and climate-related phenomena.
Published
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AnalysisAI
Summary of the Bill
The "Forecasting Optimization for Robust Earth Climate Analysis and Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Tracking Act of 2024," also known as the "FORECASTS Tracking Act of 2024," is a legislative proposal focused on enhancing weather research and forecasting capabilities. It aims to improve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) ability to predict weather patterns on a seasonal level by advancing research, data collection, and modeling. Additionally, it proposes the establishment of a Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program, intending to foster education and recruitment in weather technologies. The act authorizes significant funding to support these initiatives.
Summary of Significant Issues
One of the central issues with the bill is the authorization of large sums of money without a detailed expenditure breakdown. This lack could lead to challenges in oversight and accountability. The bill allocates $263,032,000 annually for weather research and workforce development, yet does not specify how these funds will be utilized. Similarly, the workforce innovation program authorizes $40 million annually from 2025 to 2030 without clear allocation details, raising concerns about potential wasteful spending.
Further complications arise from the bill's use of technical jargon, which might limit understanding for non-experts. While it sets ambitious goals for advancing weather forecasting technologies, it fails to acknowledge that some technologies might still be speculative or unreliable. This situation may lead to over-promising capabilities that are not feasible with current technology. Moreover, the bill grants broad authority to the Under Secretary to make agreements and awards with educational and nonprofit institutions without detailed criteria, potentially leading to favoritism or bias.
Impact on the Public
The public could broadly benefit from this bill, as improved weather forecasting can enhance preparedness and response to natural disasters, such as hurricanes, fires, and floods. Better forecasts can lead to timely warnings and potentially save lives and reduce property damage during extreme weather events. Additionally, improvements in understanding climate patterns could assist in long-term planning for sectors that are heavily weather-dependent, such as agriculture and fisheries, contributing positively to economic stability in these areas.
Impact on Specific Stakeholders
For educational institutions and nonprofit entities, this bill could present opportunities for funding and collaboration with NOAA. However, the lack of competitive processes in awarding funds could disadvantage organizations that do not have pre-existing relationships with government bodies. Researchers and scientists in the field of weather and Earth systems could also benefit from increased funding and opportunities for innovation, although they might face challenges if the promised technologies are not yet viable.
Conversely, taxpayers may be concerned about efficient use of the authorized funds without detailed accountability structures in place. The potential for speculative investment in technologies could divert resources from immediate and practical forecasting improvements, raising questions about the prioritization of funds. Moreover, stakeholders relying on the successful implementation of new technologies could face disappointments if the advancements promised by the bill are not fully realized.
In conclusion, while the bill aims to advance weather forecasting and research significantly, stakeholders and the public alike must navigate potential financial and technological uncertainties associated with its broad objectives.
Financial Assessment
The bill, S. 4907, titled the "FORECASTS Tracking Act of 2024," introduces several financial provisions aimed at enhancing weather research and forecasting abilities at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The bill outlines financial allocations that aim to support various initiatives, programs, and developments related to weather and Earth system modeling.
Appropriations Overview
The bill authorizes significant financial commitments as follows:
Improvements to Weather Research and Forecasting: It authorizes the appropriations of $50,300,000 for each fiscal year 2025 and 2026 to the Under Secretary to carry out the section's provisions. This includes activities under the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, suggesting flexibility in how these funds may be applied, though this flexibility could lead to challenges in oversight.
Workforce Innovation Program: An allocation of $40,000,000 annually for each fiscal year from 2025 through 2030 is designated to establish and support the "Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program." This program is targeted towards educating and recruiting a skilled workforce to advance weather and Earth system modeling technologies.
General Appropriations for Weather-Related Efforts: The bill also authorizes $263,032,000 annually for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 with specific allocations:
- $171,516,000 for weather laboratories and cooperative institutes.
- $51,516,000 for weather and air chemistry research programs.
- $40,000,000 for a joint technology transfer initiative.
Financial Concerns and Issues
Several issues arise from these financial allocations:
Lack of Detailed Breakdown: The substantial sums authorized for weather research and forecasting improvements lack detailed specifications on how the funds should be used. The broad allocations without detailed plans create potential for oversight and accountability challenges, as the effectiveness of spending cannot be easily tracked or scrutinized.
Speculative Research Risks: The bill emphasizes the development of advanced technologies, such as multi-model ensemble forecasts, yet these technologies may not be fully reliable or feasible at present. Committing large funds to speculative research may carry risks of over-promising results without guaranteeing practical outcomes.
Potential for Favoritism: Authority is granted to the Under Secretary to establish agreements and awards with institutions or entities, yet there lacks a detailed competitive process or criteria for these partnerships. This openness could lead to favoritism or inefficient allocation of funds, further exacerbating concerns about financial oversight.
Absence of Evaluation Metrics: The bill requires a report on the effectiveness and impact of the workforce innovation program funds after two years but does not specify what metrics should define "effectiveness and impact." Without clear benchmarks, evaluations may be vague, hindering the ability to assess the success or shortcomings of the allocations properly.
Overall, while the bill sets out ambitious funding objectives intended to bolster weather research and improve forecasting capabilities, it also raises questions about how these funds will be managed and monitored to ensure they meet their intended purposes effectively.
Issues
The bill authorizes large sums of money for weather research and forecasting improvements ($263,032,000 annually for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 and $50,300,000 annually for two fiscal years for the Under Secretary) without providing a detailed breakdown of the funds' specific uses. This lack of specificity could lead to challenges in oversight and accountability. (Section 2).
The Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program authorizes $40 million annually from 2025-2030 without clear allocation details, potentially leading to wasteful spending. (Section 415).
The bill's language around advanced technologies, such as multi-model ensemble forecasts and next-generation data assimilation systems, might not be feasible or reliable yet. This could result in committing resources to speculative research, causing concerns over over-promising. (Section 2).
The broad authority granted to the Under Secretary to establish agreements and awards with institutions of higher education or nonprofit entities lacks detailed criteria or competitive processes, which may lead to favoritism. (Section 415).
The use of technical jargon related to weather systems and Earth systems throughout the bill may be too complex for non-experts to easily understand, which can obscure understanding or scrutiny of the bill’s provisions. (Section 2).
The bill's language about 'updates to direct hiring authority' is not explicit in detailing what the updates entail, leading to ambiguity regarding these changes from current practices. (Section 415).
The lack of specified metrics or benchmarks for what constitutes 'effectiveness and impact' in the required report after two years may result in vague evaluations that fail to provide comprehensive assessments of program success or shortcomings. (Section 415).
Sections
Sections are presented as they are annotated in the original legislative text. Any missing headers, numbers, or non-consecutive order is due to the original text.
1. Short title Read Opens in new tab
Summary AI
The section outlines the official short title of the act, which is called the “Forecasting Optimization for Robust Earth Climate Analysis and Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Tracking Act of 2024” or the “FORECASTS Tracking Act of 2024.”
2. Improvements to weather research and forecasting Read Opens in new tab
Summary AI
The bill proposes improvements to weather research and forecasting, emphasizing better predictions for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts by enhancing research, data collection, and modeling. It also establishes a workforce innovation program to encourage education and recruitment in weather technologies, with specific authorized funding for these initiatives.
Money References
- — “(1) IN GENERAL.—There are authorized to be appropriated to the Under Secretary, for each of fiscal years 2025 and 2026— “(A) $50,300,000 to carry out this section; and “(B) for activities under section 102(b)(5) of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (15 U.S.C. 8512(b)(5)) pursuant to subsection (c)(5), such sums as may be necessary to carry out such subsection.
- “(g) Authorization of appropriations.—There are authorized to be appropriated to carry out the program $40,000,000 for each of fiscal years 2025 through 2030.”
- (c) Authorization of appropriations.—Section 110(a) of the Weather Research Forecasting and Innovation Act of 2017 (15 U.S.C. 8519(a)) is amended— (1) in paragraph (4)(C), by striking “; and” and inserting a semicolon; (2) in paragraph (5)(C), by striking the period at the end and inserting “; and”; and (3) by adding at the end the following: “(6) $263,032,000 for each of fiscal years 2025 and 2026, of which— “(A) $171,516,000 is authorized for weather laboratories and cooperative institutes; “(B) $51,516,000 is authorized for weather and air chemistry research programs; and “(C) $40,000,000 is authorized for the joint technology transfer initiative described in section 102(b)(4).”. ---
415. Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program Read Opens in new tab
Summary AI
The "Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program" is established to promote education and recruitment of skilled personnel in weather and Earth system technologies by providing scholarships and fellowships. The program will also create workforce plans, update hiring authorities, and submit effectiveness reports, with $40 million authorized annually from 2025 to 2030 for its execution.
Money References
- (g) Authorization of appropriations.—There are authorized to be appropriated to carry out the program $40,000,000 for each of fiscal years 2025 through 2030.